[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 080943
HLSMFL
AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-081600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
542 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO FEEL OUTER EFFECTS OF DENNIS LATER TODAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR
THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL
RESIDENTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE DENNIS.

...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM...THE INFORMATION ON EXPECTED STORM SURGE FOR COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPDATED. PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM
AND HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED AS WELL AS WIND EFFECTS. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AT 7 AM EDT.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE
SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE
METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING
DENNIS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DENNIS MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA
LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS NOW AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED
TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
COLLIER COUNTY FROM MARCO ISLAND EAST TO EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. HOWEVER...AS DENNIS APPROACHES...THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. AT NAPLES...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
AROUND 3 PM EDT. AT CAPE SABLE...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND 4 PM EDT. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951
AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 3
TO 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT AS DENNIS MOVES
AWAY THE EFFECT SHOULD BE LESSENING.

ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW CAUSED BY THE CIRCULATION
AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES OF ABOUT 2 TO 3
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT. THIS MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF BEACH-FRONT STRUCTURES AND ACCESS.

RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT THE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SURGE CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS
EVENING. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE EXPECTED INLAND.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY
39 TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN
WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 61 PERCENT.
AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF
24 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 10
PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL
OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 34 PERCENT. FOR THESE
SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 6
PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER IS LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR IS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA
BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK. ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...
ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OR EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD
COULD WORSEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ANYTIME FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED
TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM
TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD
STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THE GROUND IS
SATURATED AND CANALS ARE FULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXTREME SOUTH PARTS OF
MIAMI-DADE...ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND WESTERN COLLIER COUNTIES ARE THE
MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
LIKELY WITH THESE RAINS AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS WHICH IS FAVORED FOR TORNADOES.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES ARE USUALLY QUICK FORMING AND LAST ONLY A
SHORT WHILE...AND ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.
THESE SPIRAL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM EDT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE
GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON.

$$

PFOST

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