[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 19N ALONG 33W/34W MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT.  ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
45W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE DISPLAYS AN IMPRESSIVE
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE.  HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 41W-43W. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SAHARAN LAYER
AND ASSOCIATED DUST WITH THE LEADING EDGE ALONG 54W/55W. THIS
AREA OF DUST WAS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE
NEAR 20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 23N MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT. THIS STRONG WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS
HELPED TO SPREAD STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 79W. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF THESE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W
AND 81W...BECOME LESS NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING ALONG THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...WITHIN 35 NM
RADIUS OF 14N85W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ RUNS FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N60W TO 9N32W TO 9N36W 9N41W...
TO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N50W. THIS TROUGH HAS
FORMED NEAR A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N26W
TO 9N52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N47W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N50W TO 5N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
GUYANA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN VENZUELA AND IT CLIPS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 75NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N14W 10N25W 10N34W 8N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER IS SPINNING AROUND JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
IN THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM ALREADY DISSIPATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
THE AREA SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN CUBA HAVE DISSIPATED AND ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RE-DEVELOPED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION NEAR EASTERN CUBA ARE RELATED TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. FAIR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF
THE GULF WATERS...WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS HELPED TO SPREAD
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF 15N
WEST OF 79W. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF THESE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W...
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND
86W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF 14N85W.
LITTLE DEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF 74W...IN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...EAST OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 67W...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
IN THE TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS ALONG 50W MORE OR LESS...
NORTH OF 21N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND
50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH...AND LITTLE TO NO DEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SAVE FOR THE ITCZ. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM 25N60W TO
25N74W...JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AROUND THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
MT


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