[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 31 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N21W 1N40W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE AXIS E OF 25W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE OF N CAROLINA.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING S AND E AND NOW
EXTENDS S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N81W ALONG
26N87W WHERE IT CONNECTS TO A WARM FRONT ALONG 29N93W TO A 1012
MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FOR ALL OF FLORIDA. THE W GULF
REMAINS UNDER A RAIN-MAKING PATTERN SETTING UP N AND W OF THE
WARM FRONT/LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF TODAY AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DURING THE WEEK. OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE COAST FROM JUST N OF VERA CRUZ TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING LIES OVER THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR S OF 27N IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING VERY
MOIST WITH WARM AIR OVERRUNNING A COLD DOME OF AIR IN THE LOWEST
FEW THOUSAND FEET. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM
SE TEXAS TO ACROSS THE N GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
W TO NW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM E PANAMA NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
CONTROLS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS PREVENTING THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
TO PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE TO 16N68W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THUS
ONLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE FRONT TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT
FURTHER DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 34W WITH
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE UPPER FLOW DENOTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. THE WESTERNMOST SYSTEM IS IN THE W ATLC APPROACHING
BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND DROP ESE...REINFORCING THE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N70W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN FT LAUDERDALE AND
WEST PALM BEACH. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW SHOULD CUTOFF IN THE
VICINITY OF BERMUDA BY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N FROM
60W-68W. THE EASTERNMOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 38W N OF
23N WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N34W
ALONG 23N41W TO 18N52W THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO
27W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT FROM
19N-27N. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE BEHIND THE EASTERN
FRONT N OF 20N W TO 65W. UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE E ATLC BETWEEN
23W-34W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTROLS THE FAR E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N12W ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO 10N20W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS
DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH S OF THE EQUATOR WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING N ALONG 37W. THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE E TROPICAL
ATLC COUPLED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS
LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



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