[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 31 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
26W-36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
45W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF HAS WEAKENED AS THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE OF N CAROLINA/VIRGINIA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING S AND E AND NOW EXTENDS
ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N86W WHERE IT
CONNECTS TO A WARM FRONT ALONG 28N90W TO A NEW 1009 MB LOW OVER
NE MEXICO NEAR 26N99W. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FOR ALL OF FLORIDA. THE W GULF IS A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH A RAIN-MAKING PATTERN SETTING UP NEAR AND
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT/LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF TODAY
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DURING THE WEEK. OVERCAST
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF
THE WARM FRONT. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING LIES OVER THE GULF FROM
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ DRY AIR S OF 26N KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE
BECOMING VERY MOIST WITH WARM AIR OVERRUNNING A COLD DOME OF AIR
IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET.  THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY RAIN FROM SE TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
W TO NW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS THE RESULT OF RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
CONTROLS THE CARIBBEAN PREVENTING THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO 16N68W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THUS ONLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT E OF
THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT FURTHER DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 37W WITH TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE UPPER FLOW DENOTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. THE WESTERNMOST SYSTEM IS OFFSHORE OF N
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...THE LOW THAT PRODUCED THE ICE STORM IN THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND DROP ESE...REINFORCING THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE DEEP
LAYERED LOW SHOULD CUTOFF IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING FRONT N OF
28N. THE EASTERNMOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 42W N OF 23N
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N35W ALONG
25N41W TO 18N55W THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
GUADELOUPE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 29W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250
NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-27N. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
ARE BEHIND THE EASTERN FRONT N OF 20N W TO 70W. UPPER RIDGING IS
IN THE E ATLC BETWEEN 23W-37W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTROLS THE FAR E ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA TO 10N20W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH S OF THE EQUATOR WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 37W. THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC COUPLED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
IS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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