[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 23 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EMERGES OFF THE CONTINENT OF AFRICA NEAR 5N6W
EXTENDING WSW ALONG 2N14W 3N34W OVER S AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF TODAY
REMAINS ALONG THE S PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING S FROM OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO
NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING VERY COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR TO PLUNGE SE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME E GULF. THIS SURGE
OF CONTINENTAL AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER SEASON OVER FLORIDA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR FREEZING ALREADY FILTERING OVER N FLORIDA AND FOR POINTS S
AND W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. UNDER THIS DRY/STABLE AIR WILL
PREVAIL LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD/FLAT RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH A
MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 2N39W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 25N TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS SUCH...CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN
120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE W TIP OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER. ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS....INCREASING LIFT/DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG NORTHEASTER CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILS SW OVER THE W ATLC
ACROSS BERMUDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIES OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
PENETRATING WELL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH A BASE
OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT
REMAIN N OF 31N LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO POINTS NE OF
BERMUDA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS PRODUCING A
NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY
FLOW TO GALE FORCE IN THE ATLC AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS
WITH A NEARLY OVERCAST FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DROPPING RAPIDLY SE TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL
CARVE OUT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE W ATLC DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PROVIDE INCREASING DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG THE
ENTIRE COLD FRONT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS IT RACES E EXTENDING FROM E OF BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS FORMED BETWEEN 40W-60W PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE E ATLC WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net