[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 23 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EMERGES OFF THE CONTINENT OF AFRICA NEAR 4N10W
EXTENDING WSW ALONG 3N30W 2N40W OVER S AMERICA ALONG 4N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ
FROM 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT QUICKLY ACROSS THE GLFMEX TODAY
HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLES TO GALE FORCE
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING VERY COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL AIR TO PLUNGE
SWD FROM THE CONUS.  SEE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THIS
SURGE OF CONTINENTAL AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER SEASON OVER FLORIDA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR POINTS S AND W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TONIGHT.  THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL
GLFMEX.  UNDER THIS REGIME...DRY/STABLE AIR WILL PREVAIL
LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD/FLAT RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ESE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ABOVE 800 MB. AS SUCH...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-26N BETWEEN 65W-72W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM THE W TIP OF HISPANIOLA TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER.  THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN
NWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS....INCREASING LIFT/DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY IN TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG NOR'EASTER WHICH AFFECTED THE E UNITED STATES YESTERDAY
THROUGH THIS MORNING IS NOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILS SWD OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA.  AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST OFF THE E COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES PENETRATING WELL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
WATERS WITH A BASE NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  THE STRONGEST MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN N OF 31N LIMITING DEEP
CONVECTION TO POINTS N OF BERMUDA.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS PRODUCING A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS WITH A NEARLY OVERCAST FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING RAPIDLY SEWD
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL CARVE OUT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND PROVIDE
INCREASING DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS IT RACES EWD
EXTENDING FROM 32N55W TO THE TURK/CAICOS BY MON AFTERNOON. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
BETWEEN 40W-60W PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.  NEAR ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE E ATLC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
RHOME



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net