[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 22 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N37W 1N44W 1S52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N112W
IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER FROM
16N TO 37N BETWEEN 102W AND 126W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS EAST OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER COVERING MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF
28N101W 23N106W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 28N101W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
OPEN GULF WATERS THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...
PUSHED ALONG BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
TO SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW RUNS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 30 HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO FLORIDA WITH GALES IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE NOW GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N74W TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO...
ENDING ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
17N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MOVING FROM SOUTH AMERICA
INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE CURVING OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IS SOUTH OF 13N84W 17N76W 18N65W 19N60W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE AREA...
EXCEPT FOR THE PART SOUTHEAST OF 14N68W 16N60W. MOST OF THE
TYPICAL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE CONFINED SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 75W
SOME SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
SOUTHERN HAITI TO 14N78W TO WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W.
THE NOW-TEXAS AND SOON-TO-BE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE SUNDAY...
SENDING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W TOUCHING THE
NORTHERN PART OF SURINAME...WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 3N
TO 10N ALONG 56W/57W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 4N39W TO 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 0.5N40W TO 2S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 2N
BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 22/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA APPEAR TO SHOW NOTHING BUT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS FROM FLORIDA
TO AT LEAST 40W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO WHICH
WENT FROM 32N60W TO EASTERN CUBA APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.
ANY SLIGHT SENSE OF A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
MIGHT BE THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N63W. ANY MORE OF A TROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF 29N63W IS NOT EASY TO SEE IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WHICH IS LOADED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICS WEST OF 30W...EXCEPT FOR MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF 28N80W 29N73W TO BERMUDA. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W TO 26N70W TO 29N76W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N76W TO A COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA/
GEORGIA 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N80W. THIS FRONT IS
MARKED BY BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N49W
TO 28N55W TO 25N64W TO 23N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG
32N50W 25N60W 22N70W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 22N75W.
SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N55W. THE NEXT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N36W TO 28N29W.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N35W TO
26N37W 22N40W TO 17N50W. THIS FRONT IS MARKED BY BROKEN LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N34W TO 26N36W TO 21N40W TO 17N47W.
SURFACE 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N35W. AN 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N26W...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MOROCCO. A CYCLONIC
CENTER IS OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...SPREADING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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