[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 22 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE S
OF 2N BETWEEN 36W-45W AND W OF 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS INCREASING MID/UPPER MOISTURE IS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO S TEXAS... BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF.  OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB IN NW CUBA WITH RETURN MOISTURE AND A FEW SPRINKLES
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS.  THE NEXT
FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND BRING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
INTO FLORIDA WITH GALES IN THE N AND W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH NEAR-RECORD
COLD OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN PUERTO RICO WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND LIGHT WINDS.  MOST OF THE TYPICAL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE
CONFINED S OF 15N E OF 75W WITH SOME SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF A
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA TO SAN ANDRES ISLAND.
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA
AREAS N OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH CONTINUING OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
FROM MOIST NE WINDS.  THE NW CARIBBEAN IS HIGH AND DRY WITH WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE MID-LATITUDES SNEAKING THRU E CUBA TO
JAMAICA BRINGING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION.  A BIT MORE
UPPER MOISTURE IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH SW WINDS ALOFT.
STRONG FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN...
SENDING ANOTHER COOL SHOT INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES BETWEEN 40W AND FLORIDA WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE FROM JUST 32N60W THRU E CUBA THEN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL
REACHING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG 38W N OF 25N.  SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N58W TO 23N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS ALONG WITH BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDINESS.  SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR IS BEHIND A FRONT FROM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N60W TO
27N70W STATIONARY NW TO SE GEORGIA WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SMALL 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 22N56W RIDGING
NE TO 27N48W.  FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N39W SW TO 22N42W
17N50W HAS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N.  THE E ATLC IS RATHER QUIET WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR
24N25W AND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 21N37W WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN AVERAGE IN THE REGION.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE CAPE VERDES THEN
4N20W BUT WITH LITTLE SURFACE WEATHER IMPACT OTHER THAN TO DRY
OUT THE CAPE VERDES WHICH HAD A RARE WET PERIOD THIS WEEK AND TO
ENHANCE A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF 25N18W.  FARTHER S... THE
DEEP TROPICAL ATLC W OF 30W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
MID/UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 1N44W RIDGING NORTHWARD TO 21N42W.
THIS HIGH IS QUITE FAR TO THE N FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER
WINDS 30-35 KT WEAKER THAN NORMAL FROM THE W OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC.  SLY WINDS FROM THE HIGH ARE CARRYING CIRRUS TSTM DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM S AMERICAN/ITCZ CONVECTION THRU THE SE CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL ATLC TO ABOUT 45W.  THESE CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY DISSIPATING
N OF 15N AS DRY AIR LIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-80W.  SOME DIVERGENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK TROUGH NEAR 58W S OF 14N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE S OF 10N W OF 52W.

$$
BLAKE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net