[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 19 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N21W 5N40W 4N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
7N49W 5N45W 1N45W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N
BETWEEN 26W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM S OF 2N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NNW
TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND E TEXAS WHICH IS RESULTING IN ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER JET WITH WINDS OF
90-110 KT IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM OVER MEXICO TO THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE E UNITED STATES INTO THE W
ATLC WITH A SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY SE OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
TENNESSEE. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING
SSW OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 14N75W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL PANAMA.
MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT TO 80W. THE NE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW HAS GENERATED A
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND S TEXAS
GENERATING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 95W TO THE E SLOPE OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

CARIBBEAN...
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM SE OF JAMAICA NEAR
15N78W TO THE COAST RICA/PANAMA BORDER IN THE AREA OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA. BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 20N FROM 40W TO THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
MID LEVEL TROUGH. CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
9N55W TO 21N61W WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N57W NNE TO BEYOND 29N52W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 26N33W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N45W. THE
1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED AND IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N33W. CONFLUENCE TO THE SW OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS AN AREA N OF 20N FROM
34W-50W. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A RIDGE
HAS BUILT TO THE E ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 100-130 KT IS ALONG LINE
FROM 12N45W AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN
THE E ATLC THEN N TO OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N04W. THIS
IS ADVECTING A LARGE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NE
TO OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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