[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 19 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N24W 5N33W 2N48W 3N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N ACROSS
THE EQUATOR W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NNW
TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS WHICH IS RESULTING IN ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER JET WITH WINDS OF
100-130 KT IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM OVER MEXICO TO OVER
FLORIDA. THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE E UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC WITH A
SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING SSW OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 14N75W
TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL PANAMA. MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. THE NE LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW HAS GENERATED A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N96W TO 24N98W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W TO THE E SLOPE OF
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

CARIBBEAN...
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N78W TO THE
COAST RICA/PANAMA BORDER IN THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N
FROM 45W TO THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH.
CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 10N59W TO 22N61W
WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N57W NNE TO BEYOND 30N50W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 27N31W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 19N47W. THE
1008 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N30W. CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS AN AREA WITHIN
250/275 NM OF LINE FROM 22N25W 22N41W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N44W.
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A RIDGE IS
BUILDING TO THE E ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS ALONG LINE FROM
14N53W AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E
ATLC THEN N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N15W. THIS IS ADVECTING
A LARGE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NE TO OVER
AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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