[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 18 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N16W 5N26W 3N32W 3N45W 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER E MEXICO INTO TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA W OF 90W. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER TEXAS AND INTO THE NW GULF. BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E COAST OF THE US
AND COVERS THE W ATLC AND E GULF FROM 57W TO 90W. COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING SSW E OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO
14N77W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL
PANAMA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC
ALONG 66W WITH CONFLUENCE PRODUCING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA S OF 27N W OF 65W AND WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE FRONT.
THUS...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...BROKEN/OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W AND
THE GULF W OF 84W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N
FROM 48W-75W S OF THE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. CONFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 10N60W TO 22N64W WHICH IS PRODUCING ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N56W NE
28N54W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 120/180 NM OF THE AXIS. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N38W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 30N. ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE
E ATLC IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N26W WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO 23N45W. THE 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND IS CENTERED NEAR 26N25W.
CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 32W-47W AND WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N18W TO
23N32W. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90-120 KT
REMAINS ALONG LINE FROM 13N45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 21N16W
ADVECTING A LARGE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE E TO
OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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