[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 18 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N26W 2N40W 1N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM
29W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 3N30W-4N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER E MEXICO
TO OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA W OF 93W. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER TEXAS AND INTO THE NW
GULF. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E
COAST OF THE US AND COVERS THE W ATLC AND E GULF W OF 60W. COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SSW E
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 16N76W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
CENTRAL PANAMA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE W
ATLC ALONG 68W WITH CONFLUENCE PRODUCING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE AREA S OF 27N W OF 70W AND WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
FRONT. THUS...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...BROKEN/
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO
80W AND THE GULF W OF 86W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N
FROM 50W-80W S OF THE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. CONFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 9N58W TO 20N64W WHICH IS PRODUCING ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N60W NE
28N57W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 150/250 NM OF THE AXIS.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
34N40W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 30N. DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER
THE E ATLC HAS ELONGATED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS
NOW CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING W TO 25N44W. THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N24W WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N24W 25N18W TO N
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N25W TO 18N35W. A SECOND SURGE
IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ALONG 26N21W TO 22N28W. CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N
FROM 30W-45W AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 19W-30W. UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90-140 KT REMAINS ALONG 18N FROM
45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA ADVECTING A LARGE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE E TO OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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