[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 09 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 2N1W 2N10W 3N20W 3N30W 4N40W 3N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 1N EAST OF 10W...AND SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
ON TOP OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA CORNER INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 28N90W TO
24N95W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR 20N97W...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N100W. BAND OF BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N98W 28N90W BEYOND
31N80W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DISAPPEARING WITH TIME.
IT IS A BAND OF THIN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N95W 28N86W BEYOND 30N80W. SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W TO THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NEAR
25N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT POSSIBLY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...SOUTH OF 11.5N BETWEEN 80W AND LAND. THE ITCZ IN THAT
AREA IS ALONG 7N79W 6N84W. SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN AN AREA OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
CYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL VENEZUELA...SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 65W
AND 73W...TO THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA OF VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF 20N64W 16N67W...AND SOUTH OF 16N67W
14N84W...WITH COMPARATIVELY EVEN DRIER AIR FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 73W AND 86W...COVERING THE AREA FROM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
TO CUBA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POPPING
UP...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 20N64W 16N67W 14N84W LINE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH 31N37W 26N48W 24N52W CURVING TO 20N53W. SURFACE
RIDGE FROM 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N64W TO 28N793W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 30N6W GOING FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO INTO ALGERIA...TO
A SECOND AND DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N23W ABOUT 330 NM
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 23N50W TO A NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N66W ABOUT
20 NM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH
AMERICA...REACH 23N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PART OF A LARGER SCALE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH SPANS THE TROPICS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOROCCO-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

$$
MT





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