[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090635 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 09 JAN 2005

CORRECTION TO INCLUDE THE WORD TROUGH IN THE FIRST SENTENCE
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...TO 2N10W 4N17W 4N30W 4N44W
AND TO THE EQUATOR AT 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 13W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N EAST OF 11W...
AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA CORNER/SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA CORNER...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N89W. STATIONARY FRONT GOES
FROM 29N89W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR
20N97W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 26N100W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. BAND OF BROKEN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N98W 28N90W
BEYOND 31N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. 1008 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 8N77.5W IN SOUTHEASTERN
PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND LAND. THE ITCZ
IN THAT AREA IS ALONG 6N78W 6N80W 7N82W. SURFACE EASTERLY
TRADEWIND FLOW EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN AN AREA OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY
NORMAL CYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL VENEZUELA TO THE LAKE
MARACAIBO AREA OF VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EAST OF 20N64W 13N68W...AND SOUTH OF 13N68W 13N83W...WITH
COMPARATIVELY EVEN DRIER AIR FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W
AND 82W...COVERING THE AREA FROM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO
CUBA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH 33N39W 28N45W 25N51W 20N52W. SURFACE RIDGE
FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N62W TO 29N73W TO
THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N5W GOING
FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO INTO ALGERIA...TO A SECOND AND DEVELOPING
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N25W ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 23N50W TO A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N67W ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN
END OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...REACH
23N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PART OF A
LARGER SCALE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC AND EVENTUALLY
ZONAL FLOW WHICH SPANS THE TROPICS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOROCCO-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

$$
MT


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