[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 02 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 7N16W 6N30W 6N48W 4N55W.
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA
BETWEEN 10W-13W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE 1N15W 2N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF
SURINAME AND NE VENEZUELA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS...GENERALLY S OF THE LATITUDE OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA. QSCAT IMAGERY STILL INDICATES NE/E 20-25 KT WINDS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE E GULF...THEN BECOMING
MORE SELY INTO TEXAS WHERE THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO STREAMING N ALONG A LINE FROM
BROWNSVILLE ALONG THE COAST TO MATAGORDA BAY THEN INLAND FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO WACO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE AREA...SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST...WHILE A FLATTENED TROF IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS HEAD TO THE SW.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
EXISTS FARTHER S OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20-25 KT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A STATIONARY UPPER TROF
EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SWWD TO NRN NICARAGUA
AND FLOW CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W
OF 65W. BROAD SW FLOW EMANATING OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA IS PULLING
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOWARDS THE CNTRL ATLC AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTINUE TO PERSIST SE OF TRINIDAD NEAR THE ORINOCO DELTA.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MOVING SWWD AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
VENEZUELAN ISLANDS WWD ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
A DEEPENING 1010 MB LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
WATERS NEAR 30N50W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE THEN S TO
28N47W 24N48W...THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 19N53W. THE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST W OF THE SFC LOW IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AND THIS IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
TAKE ON AN OCCLUDED SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
WRAPPING AROUND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE WHILE STRONGER
CONVECTION EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
QSCAT IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED A
LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THE GFS HAD FORECASTED WITH WINDS AT LEAST
30 KT ON THE W SIDE. FARTHER S...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OFF THE BRAZILIAN COAST ALONG EQ40W 10N45W WHICH IS
SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NE THEN EWD
ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD SFC TROF IS
LOCATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDES ALONG 19N30W 28N28W AND IS
PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 28W-31W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
26N28W WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SE TO THE MOROCCAN COAST BUT IT
IS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY
INACTIVE BUT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-41W DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W
OF A TROF ALONG 25W/26W.

$$
BERG


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