[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 02 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N34W 7N50W 9N70W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED ABOUT 180 NM SE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC AND
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...GENERALLY S OF THE LATITUDE OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA. QSCAT IMAGERY STILL INDICATES NE/E 20-25 KT
WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE E GULF...THEN
BECOMING MORE SELY INTO TEXAS WHERE THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO STREAMING INLAND ALONG A LINE 30 NM OFFSHORE
FROM BROWNSVILLE NWD TO CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST...WHILE A FLATTENED TROF IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
EXISTS FARTHER S OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20-25 KT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A STATIONARY UPPER TROF
EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SWWD TO NRN NICARAGUA
AND FLOW CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W
OF 65W. BROAD SW FLOW EMANATING OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA IS PULLING
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOWARDS THE CNTRL ATLC AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SWD ACROSS E VENEZUELA ALONG
A SFC TROF. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN MOVING SWWD AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
A 1014 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN UP OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WATERS
NEAR 29N49W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NWD PAST 32N47W
AND A TROF EXTENDING SW TO 26N48W 19N55W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED W OF THE SFC LOW NEAR 29N52W AND DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE ASSOCIATED TROF IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 42W-47W AND FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
47W-53W. FARTHER S...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE
BRAZILIAN COAST ALONG EQ42W 20N46W WHICH IS SPREADING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NE THEN EWD ACROSS THE ATLC TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD SFC TROF IS LOCATED NW OF THE
CAPE VERDES ALONG 15N30W 23N29W 29N26W BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N28W WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SE TO THE
MOROCCAN COAST BUT IT TOO IS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY INACTIVE BUT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-37W DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF A TROF ALONG 26W.

$$
BERG


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