[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 01 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N30W 7N50W 8N70W 4N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 25W-45W AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE GLFMEX AND E UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
RESULTING IN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE DISTURBANCES AND CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING CONFINED OVER THE CONUS.  THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEWD ACROSS S FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
RESTRICTED TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PRODUCING MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE W GULF WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE W GLFMEX COURTESY OF AN ELY DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS MOISTURE IS GETTING PULLED NWD TOWARD
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND SHOULD HELP SPARK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND S UNITED STATES SUN AND MON AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID-LATITUDE WEATHER SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN...
IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...THE WEATHER IS PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL
FEATURES. THE LOW ELY DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA YESTERDAY HAS
SHIFTED NW OF THE AREA INTO THE SE GLFMEX.  HOWEVER...STRONG NE
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE WHICH BROKE OFF OF
WEAK SFC TROF/REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
MOVING ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED ELY FLOW.
ELSEWHERE...A SECOND REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAILS SWD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR BARBUDA TO THE SE TIP OF HISPANIOLA. THE BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PUSHING QUICKLY SWD WITH DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN BEHIND.  FINALLY...A WEAK ELY
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD AFFECTING THE N PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND
EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ATLANTIC...
THE PATTERN OVER THE W ATLC...W OF 60W...REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED COURTESY OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
AREA.  THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM S FLORIDA NEWD OVER BERMUDA WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
E/W ALONG 32N.  THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 26N. CLOUDINESS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE AREA BUT HAVE
STEADILY DECREASED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS.  MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD MID-WEEK AS
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BEGIN
TO MOVE WESTWARD.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED LOW
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N54W IS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER AGAIN TODAY. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N-33N
BETWEEN 45W-53W.  FINALLY OVER THE E ATLC...THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE RETROGRESSIVE AS A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 28W
MOVES WESTWARD ALONG 27N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CONFLUENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITION WITHIN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE N OF THE ITCZ BUT
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM 30W WESTWARD TO 45W.
CLOUDINESS SHARPLY DECREASES E OF 30W AS AN AREA SAHARAN DUST
HAS MADE ITS WAY OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. FURTHER S...THE ITCZ
IS MOST ACTIVE BETWEEN 25W-45W AND FROM 50W-65W.

$$
RHOME


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