[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 01 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N21W 5N37W 1N48W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
11W-16W INCLUDING OVER SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W. ALTHOUGH
NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE IVORY COAST FROM EQ-5N EAST
OF 8W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
HIGH PRES LOCATED SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA IS
REINFORCING THE BRISK 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
FROM THE W ATLC WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SFC RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS CNTRL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS
AND ESE/SE FLOW AROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE IS BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE INLAND BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI AND TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE
NOW TILTS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND THE N BAHAMAS TO 32N66W WHICH IS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS ARE
MOVING FROM E TEXAS TOWARDS GEORGIA AND ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH STRETCH FROM SE TEXAS TO S MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO RACE WWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS BUT
THE COVERAGE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO HAMPER MARINE ACTIVITIES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING 20-25 KT
NE/E WINDS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE CNTRL AMERICAN COAST. AN
UPPER TROF IS POSITIONED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO NE
HONDURAS AND FLOW CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF HAS MOVED INLAND PAST CANCUN
AND COZUMEL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS
DWINDLED. A SECOND TROF ALSO EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA NEWD
TO BARBADOS AND THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 58W-64W...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
52W-58W.

CENTRAL ATLC...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW N OF
THE AREA SWD TO 30N45W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 23N55W...THEN AS A
FRONTAL TROF TO 20N54W TO NEAR GUADELOUPE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
IS LOCATED ALONG 55W UPSTREAM FROM THE SFC FEATURES AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW IS
DEVELOPING NEAR 31N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR THIS FEATURE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...NOW LOCATED N OF 29N BETWEEN 50W-56W. BROAD
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 45W-51W ALONG THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD AND FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE IS ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ALONG 40W WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICS S OF 20N AND E OF 50W.

EAST ATLC...
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF
LOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 27N27W. TO THE S...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDS E OF 40W INTO AFRICA ALTHOUGH A TROF IS LOCATED ALONG
EQ29W 6N32W WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-40W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL TROF IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM NW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD FIELD ROTATING TO THE
WEST...AND IT APPEARS TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST FROM 6N-27N E OF 26W.

$$
BERG



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