[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 23 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 3N20W...EQUATOR AT 31W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S47W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W...
AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN NEW
MEXICO AND 130W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
INTERIOR MEXICO...FEEDING INTO A TEXAS-TO-LOUISIANA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
MEXICO FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN
86W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 28.5N94W. A GRADUAL
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WITH ZONAL FLOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ALONG 28N85W 29N90W 29N94W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
27N98W AT 23/1800 UTC...BUT IT HAD WEAKENED BY THE 23/2100 UTC
ANALYSIS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS INLAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND FLAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH A DRY AND TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. POCKETS OF MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITH THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT AREA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W...AND POSSIBLY
EAST OF 20N66W 16N63W 13N63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS UNDER THIS UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM 24N38W TO AN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 25N48W TO 26N61W TO AN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 26N71W...TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 30N60W TO 28N72W. STATIONARY FRONT
CURVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 28N72W TO AN 1018 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N79W. THIS FRONT IS DISTINGUISHED BY
A 30 TO 60 NM WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONTAL FEATURE IS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A CYCLONIC
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 35N29W...AND A SURFACE
1002 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 36N26W...COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 18N
EAST OF 30W. PARALLEL SURFACE TROUGHS CURVE BETWEEN THE AFRICA
COAST AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 34N30W 27N24W 27N15W.

$$
MT


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