[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 23 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 1N35W 3N52W.  SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION LIES OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
11W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-30W AND S OF 2N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER E TEXAS
IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY AS IT CUTS ACROSS THE S UNITED
STATES IGNITING AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN ADVANCE.  THE
STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SECOND AREA OF
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN
87W-93W. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ALONG THE N GULF COAST REACHING N FLORIDA
TONIGHT.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE S GULF...MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL SAVE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAKING ACROSS THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD/FLAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH A DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...MODERATE ELY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.  POCKETS OF MOISTURE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITH THE ELY TRADES WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 66W-76W. ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 53W-62W.  BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
W OF 45W AND IS UNDERLAID BY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG 24N/25N. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MOVING SWD
AND IMPINGING UPON THE RIDGE.  THE FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE
AREA ALONG 32N50W TO 30N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A
1018 MB LOW ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES COAST.  WHILE LACKING
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS E OF 70W TO CONTINUE MOVING
SWD EXTENDING ALONG 31N40W TO 26N60W BY THU MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 70W WILL GET PULLED N
OF THE AREA.  FARTHER E...A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE
AZORES EXTENDS SWD INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 20W-30W AND IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 17W-27W INCLUDING THE
CANARY ISLANDS.  FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC WITH 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG 20N.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR E ATLC
IMPLYING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE ITCZ.

$$
RHOME


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