[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 10 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N10W 1N20W...EQUATOR AT 27W...2N34W...1N40W TO 50W FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 1N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN
10W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST IS
SENDING EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SOUTH OF 36N WEST OF THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS BORDER...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF 26N80W
24N90W 21N97W. SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST NEAR 23N98W TO 24N100W INLAND. STATIONARY FRONT CURVES
FROM 24N100W TO JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. POSSIBLE
MODERATE SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CONTINUAL DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...THROUGH 14N60W TO 12N65W TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N67W. THE COMPARATIVELY MORE SOLID BAND OF CLOUDINESS...
WHICH HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS DISSIPATED. VARIABLE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS NOW SOUTHEAST
OF 19N60W 13N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM
RADIUS OF 10.5N66W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR EVERYWHERE.CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM
10/0900 UTC SHOW A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NICARAGUA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM FLORIDA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EVENTUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT NOW-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS DEEP
LAYER FEATURE STILL SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W
TO 20N49W TO 14N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 41W AND
47W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS DURING
THE LAST FIVE DAYS OR SO. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT AS
DEEP AS IT WAS EARLIER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NOW
COVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 32W...AS
DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS BROAD AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE COMPARATIVELY PROMINENT TROUGH RUNS FROM
NORTHERN ALGERIA...OVER THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO
29N30W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH RUNS ALONG THE MOROCCO COAST
TO 14N20W IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net