[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 10 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N10W 1N20W...EQUATOR AT 27W...2N34W...1N40W TO 50W FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 1N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN
8W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST IS
SENDING EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SOUTH OF 36N WEST OF THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS BORDER...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF 26N80W
24N90W 21N97W. SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W.
STATIONARY FRONT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 24N98W TO THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N85W 22N90W.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1020 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 30N73W TO 24N86W. MODERATE SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CONTINUAL DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...THROUGH 14N60W TO 12N65W TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N67W. THE COMPARATIVELY MORE SOLID BAND OF CLOUDINESS...
WHICH HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS DISSIPATED. VARIABLE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS NOW SOUTHEAST
OF 19N60W 13N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE.
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0300 UTC SHOW A MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NICARAGUA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM FLORIDA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EVENTUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT NOW-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS DEEP
LAYER FEATURE STILL SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W
TO 20N49W TO 14N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N51W 24N44W 29N45W BEYOND 32N45W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS DURING THE LAST FIVE
DAYS OR SO. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS
EARLIER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 32W...AS DIFFERENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE COMPARATIVELY PROMINENT TROUGH RUNS FROM
NORTHERN ALGERIA...OVER THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO
29N30W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH RUNS ALONG THE MOROCCO COAST
TO 14N20W IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net