[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 01 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 6N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE GLFMEX BUT IS BEING ERODED BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER
THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO.  THE TROUGH IS TAPPING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING COPIOUS MOISTURE SURGING NEWD ALONG A 130
KT UPPER JET FROM THE S BAJA PENINSULA TO S LOUISIANA.  AT THE
SURFACE...1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE N GLFMEX NEAR 28N92W
WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD INTO MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND
VERACRUZ THEN STATIONARY OVER INTERIOR MEXICO ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT WITH THIS
PATTERN CLIPS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF COAST NWD INTO E TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA.  OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF...OVERRUNNING
POLEWARD OF A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N/28N IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N.  OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR MEXICO WHERE POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW IS
ENCOUNTERING WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SW UNITED STATES TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER
THE GULF TO BUILD NWD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PUSH
THE STRONGEST LIFT/DYNAMICS N OF THE AREA PRODUCING INCREASING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S CONUS.  HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
A FLATTENED MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR BELIZE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA.  UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAIN CONFINED WELL N
OF THE AREA LEAVING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  AS A
RESULT...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE AREA PRIMARILY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR BARBADOS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 14N80W.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REACHING THE ABC ISLANDS AND N COAST OF S AMERICA WED.
ELSEWHERE...NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING THE USUAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC FILTERS SWD OVER THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...W OF 40W WITH
WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE WESTERN MOST
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW IS CENTERED
JUST NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N59W SWD ALONG 27N58W THEN SW
TO THE TURKS/CAICOS WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE N
PORTION OF THIS FRONT...N OF 27W...IS MOVING RAPIDLY E WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 51W-57W. A THIN LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING A FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
TO THE FLORIDA E COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
CUTOFF LOW IS FORMING 100 NM NE OF BERMUDA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS REACHING 31N58W BY THU
MORNING.  ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED ALONG
THE N EXTENT...N OF 25N...OF THE COLD FRONT AS CONTINUES EWD
CROSSING 50W WED MORNING. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS AREA NEAR
32N32W EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N43W TO 17N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBADOS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-32N
BETWEEN 33W-43W.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 25N42W.  THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NWD REACHING 30N40W BY WED MORNING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ALBEIT WEAK...CROSSING 40W
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 35W-40W
TONIGHT SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN LIFTS QUICKLY N
OF THE AREA ON WED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT.  OVER THE E ATLC...SHARPENING MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
LOCATED ALONG 30W WITH A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW FURTHER E NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  THE UPPER LOW HAS LIMITED SURFACE SIGNATURE
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE E ATLC WATERS AND W
AFRICA. THE TROPICS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH ITCZ ACTIVITY FOCUSED BETWEEN 30W-40W.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND DUSTY AIR
ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA SPREADING WESTWARD WITH LEADING EDGE
NEAR 30W.

$$
RHOME




WWWW
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