[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 01 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N16W 2N25W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 33W-43W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 82W IS
MAINTAINING COOL/DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA
BUT A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO TEXAS
IS PUMPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE NW
GULF AND SE UNITED STATES ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONSISTING OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N86W TO A 1013 MB LOW S OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N93W TO A SECOND 1013 MB LOW OFF THE SE TEXAS/NW MEXICAN COAST
NEAR 25N92W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO THEN EXTENDING NW ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS PRODUCING A SWATH
OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N AND W GULF WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NW MEXICO.
OVERCAST CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OVER THE MEXICAN COASTAL PLAINS BUT A LOT OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FORCED LOW/FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
A FLATTENED MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM THE COLOMBIA NW TO W CUBA BUT CONFLUENCE INTO THIS FEATURE
IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT
ALL LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND SAINT LUCIA TO 13N68W. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N E OF 70W. NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO PRODUCING THE USUAL
LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE INLAND AND ALONG THE COASTS OF W PANAMA TO S
NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...W OF 38W WITH
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. WESTERN MOST
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW IS CENTERED
JUST NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N64W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC NEAR 32N61W S ALONG 27N61W THEN SW TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE N PORTION OF
THIS FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N FROM 53W-60W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180
NM SW OF THE FRONT E OF 65W. CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SE GULF
AND NW CARIBBEAN AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC S OF 24N E OF 66W...THUS LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. FURTHER E...A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N32W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N40W TO 16N55W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND SAINT LUCIA.
DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE IS ENHANCING OVERCAST SKIES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250/350 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED E OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 30W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS SPLIT ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ABOVE STATIONARY FRONT. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED JUST NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N12W BUT IS
ENVELOPED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE THUS PRODUCING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE TROPICS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. DRY AND DUSTY AIR
ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA HAS ALSO SPREAD S AND W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND IS LIMITING ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net