[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N29W 6N45W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS UP TO 330 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
30W-47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS 200 NM N OF THE COASTS OF FRENCH
GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
BUT ITS MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE SYSTEM IS
ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF NEAR 26N89W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING NE ACROSS N/CNTRL FLORIDA THROUGH TAMPA BAY AND
CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-89W WITH
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING N OF THAT INTO THE SE
UNITED STATES. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR N OF THE YUCATAN COAST FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 86W-89W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS LIES N AND W OF THE
FRONT AND HAS SURGED S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S F ALONG COASTAL MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE S ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF WITHIN
THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL LOWS.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE ENTIRE AREA IS COVERED BY
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE...STRONGEST OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES N AND W TO
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC...
A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING N ACROSS FLORIDA AND CONNECTS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 29N81W 30N77W 30N70W
32N65W. A STRONG 150+ KT JET LIES WELL TO THE N ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BUT LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST ALONG THE FRONT...WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALL LOCATED N OF 27N AS IT RIDES
OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N74W 32N61W. FARTHER E...AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES WITH A SHARP
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 32N34W 12N60W.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET LIES TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
15N53W TO WRN SAHARA/SRN MOROCCO WITH CORE SPEEDS AROUND 130 KT
NEAR 25N25W. THE JET IS HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPANDING NWD OVER THE E ATLC...THEN SPREADS E INTO
W AFRICA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N29W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N34W AND NE TO 32N21W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE N OF THE LOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W-35W. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS LATER IN
THE WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS NE THEN DROPS S WED/THU.

$$
BERG


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