[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N30W 3N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W...AND
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W MOVING
E.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 22N94W 17N95W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W 26N84W 28N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 26N TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 82W-92W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS
OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 90W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...N OF
THE WARM FRONT.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AS
WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-74W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N
COAST OF VENEZUELA S OF 12N...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N
TO INCLUDE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM PANAMA TO BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE SEA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.  EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS DUE TO THE TRADEWINDS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 17N DUE TO THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N70W 30N78W
28N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER.  TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N35W...AND NEAR 26N23W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF
THE ITCZ ALONG 45W FROM 3N-12N.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 50W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-50W WITH CENTER NEAR 30N32W.  RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N10W TO 7N60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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