[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 6N25W 4N36W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO 24N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W SW TO 25N92W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W SW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
27N TO OVER THE SE U.S. FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO
OVER MOBILE ALABAMA. THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 78W FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERING THE E GULF E OF 86W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE S OF 24N ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCLUDING E TEXAS...
LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF BY
FRI MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W
GULF ON SAT/SUN SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION REMAINS
THE SW PORTION WHERE THE ITCZ CUTS ACROSS PANAMA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 77W TO INLAND
OVER PANAMA AND NICARAGUA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FRI...BECOMING STRONGER DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 78W COVERING THE AREA W OF
65W TO OVER THE E GULF. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC IS N OF 17N FROM 48W-65W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW TO 24N57W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE NEAR
19N68W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 22N
W OF 55W TO THE U.S. E COAST. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE FAR W ATLC DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD.
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N43W N TO BEYOND 32N45W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N TO THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 26N W OF 51W AND
IN THE TROPICS FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 35W-51W. ELONGATED DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC IS N OF 23N E OF 40W WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING E/W FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF SPAIN/PORTUGAL. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO 29N36W. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N23W-30N32W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.

$$
WALLACE



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