[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N21W 8N50W 6N59W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF 11.5N FROM 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE W GULF WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS TO
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 24N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER FAR E TEXAS NEAR 32N94W S TO
26N96W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W SW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N98W. A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR
30N90W SW TO 25N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND TO OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO PANAMA CITY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 80W FROM OVER CUBA COVERING THE E GULF. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE S OF 24N ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF ON SAT/SUN SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS W FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY UPPER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION REMAINS THE FAR S PORTION
WHERE THE ITCZ CUTS ACROSS PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
PANAMA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BECOMING STRONGER DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 80W W OF 68W TO OVER THE E
GULF. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM
50W-68W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N53W EXTENDING SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE
TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 57W TO THE U.S. E COAST.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 48W N OF 20N PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE TO
THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 23N-30N TO THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA
S OF 26N W OF 55W AND IN THE TROPICS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN
30W-55W. ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N
E OF 42W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALMOST E/W. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 33.5W FROM
23N-29N. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 23N24W-31N32W. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE
TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.

$$
WALLACE


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