[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N21W 9N33W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 26W-33W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 10W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND NARROWING THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR
E U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N FROM 60W-89W.
THERE ARE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH. EASTERN COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N62W SW ALONG 24N70W ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO NEAR
20N76W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE YUCATAN COAST
NEAR 19N87W. A SECOND COLD FRONT..RE-ENFORCING THE FIRST ENTERS THE
W ATLC NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING W ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF TO
29N86W THEN NW OVER MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W. A WEAKENING
RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF FROM THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W NW TO 24N99W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED BANKED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 91W
AND S OF 22N W OF 94W. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT
CONTINUES FROM THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N91W ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG
26N77W TO BEYOND 32N67W IN THE W ATLC. EASTERN FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE FRONTS MERGING
WED INTO THU AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING W TO E
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 20N FROM 76W-87W. BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
QUITE DRY WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN UNTIL THU AND POSSIBLY WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SKIRTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AREA TODAY.
THEN THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N57W
NNE TO BEYOND 32N53W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 45W-60W. DIFFLUENCE TO
THE W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 25N66W TO BEYOND 32N60W WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM 27N-32N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-23N W OF 45W.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N
FROM 20W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N35W
S ALONG 24N35W TO NEAR 16N41W...WHICH IS DIVISION A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE. A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W TO
A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N54W TO 23N57W AND OVER THE E ATLC
THROUGH 32N18W TO 17N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 24N32W TO 33N28W. DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 30W-45W KEEPING THE ITCZ TO THE S AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

$$
WALLACE



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