[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 8N32W 4N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
25W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-25W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 19N FROM 60W-90W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W SW ALONG 24N71W ACROSS THE
S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO NEAR 20N79W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO THE
YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W. A RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO 23N97W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REMAINED BANKED OVER THE NW GULF N
OF 23N W OF 90W AND S OF 23N W OF 94W. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO
100 KT SWEEPS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W TO BEYOND 32N72W IN THE W ATLC. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE SW GULF AND THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER TODAY WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
E FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 19N W OF 77W. BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN UNTIL THU AND POSSIBLY WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SKIRTING THE NW AREA TODAY. THEN THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N60W
NNE TO BEYOND 32N50W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 45W-60W. DIFFLUENCE TO
THE W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N67W TO
BEYOND 32N60W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY N OF 30N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN 50W-70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 23W-44W. OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 32N31W ALONG 27N32W TO NEAR 21N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM 24N35W TO 29N29W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 30N FROM 26W-31W. DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 35W-50W KEEPING THE ITCZ TO THE S AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

$$
WALLACE


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