[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 5N30W 3N40W 4N51W 6N601W. MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 54W-59W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO A 1017 MB
GALE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N95W.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER N
MISSISSIPPI RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE
FRONTS.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF S OF 28N WITH
NO CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS
OF 80 T0 100 KT AND SW FLOW TRAVERSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS JET
IS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 80 W.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SEA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO THE SURFACE
TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO 29N76W TO S
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE FRONT.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO THE JETSTREAM FLOWS
ABOVE THE FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N56W.  FURTHER E...A 1008 MB GALE LOW IS NEAR 32N32W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N37W 20N43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM N OF 28N BETWEEN 28W-32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 55W.  A TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-55W.  WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
1N32W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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