[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 5N30W 3N40W 4N51W 6N601W. MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 54W-59W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 T0 100 KT OVER THE GULF AND HIGHER
WINDS OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS N MEXICO/GULF AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS JET IS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO...NORTH OF 24N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS BEING PUSHED
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF
COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS E MEXICO WITH SW UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE IS SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N77W...THEN CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 21N-93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
21N-93W TO A SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 21N-94W. ALSO...A COLD FROM
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N-93W.  THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW
CENTER IS MARKED BY A LINE OF CLOUDS...WHICH EASILY IS SEEN ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
ALSO A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE
GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER. A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO ALL THE WAY NE ACROSS CENTRAL/NE GULF
ENTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N-83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 80 W.
THESE TRADEWIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
COVERED BY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N AND BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA. A BAND
OF LOW/MID CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N70W...JUST
NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FASTEST WINDS IN
THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS JET STREAM RANGE FROM 80 KT TO 100 KT NORTH
OF 28N WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-37W
WHILE AN EASTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE MADEIRA AND
CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH
TO AFRICA. THE FIRST TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSES THROUGH 31N34W 26N40W 22N50W. THIS FRONT IS THE FRONT WHICH
WILL ABSORB THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N38W...WHICH IS
THE REMNANT LOW OF EPSILON. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT...COVERING A LARGE AREA NORTH OF 23N AND BETWEEN 40W-60W.
A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

$$
GR



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