[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 080230
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARRIVED OVER EPSILON THIS AFTERNOON...STRIPPING
THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  USING A BLEND OF T AND CI
NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.
WITH EVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE WAY...EPSILON WILL DECAY
RAPIDLY...PERHAPS LOSING ALL CONVECTION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/10.  EPSILON WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED
BY A SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW AS IT DECAYS...AND THIS FLOW...CURRENTLY
NORTHEASTERLY...WILL WEAKEN AND REVERSE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW
BAM MODELS WITH THE GFS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 27.8N  39.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 26.9N  39.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 26.7N  39.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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