[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 07/2100 UTC IS NEAR 28.3N 38.5W
OR ABOUT 945 MILES...1515 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  EPSILON IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO
80 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
EPSILON IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE HURRICANE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FROM ITS HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 6N50W 5N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 8W-13W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
14W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A 1014 MB LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N95W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR
14N86W IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SE PACIFIC
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD OVER
MOST OF THE GULF N OF 22W...EFFECTIVELY OBSCURING THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO MOVE
INTO THE W GULF DUE TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 6N-17N
BETWEEN 80W-87W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED  OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
75 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.  SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO E OF 75W EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL AREA OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W.
EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SEA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 27N70W 26N80W MOVING
E.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  A SMALL 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N57W.  HURRICANE EPSILON IS FURTHER E PRODUCING CYCLONIC SURFACE
FLOW N OF 23N BETWEEN 33W-43W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND E OF 30W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 10N AND E
OF 50W.  EXPECT CONTINUED ITCZ CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
MT


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