[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR
31.9N 33.8W OR ABOUT 495 NM/920 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTH 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON FINDS ITSELF IN THE AREA OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TOP OF IT. THIS TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE AREA AROUND EPSILON TO 25N43W TO 16N61W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 30N42W 22N58W...AND COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AROUND EPSILON FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 6N20W 6N30W 8N42W...7N45W 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 10N
EAST OF 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS ALONG 10N42W 7N44W 4N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 06/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO REACH NORTH FLORIDA...HENCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO 22N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...
TO INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N71W 28N80W 24N90W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 90W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE TWO AREAS OF CLOUDINESS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STARTS NEAR THE
AREA OF HURRICANE EPSILON IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE AREA AROUND
EPSILON TO 25N43W TO 16N61W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA
WEST OF 70W...WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXTREMELY WEAK...WITH THE 1012 MB ISOBAR RUNNING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE 1016 MB ISOBAR RUNNING
FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N71W 28N80W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS LINE OF CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W
BEYOND 32N57W. THE NEXT FEATURE IS THE NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH AWAY FROM HURRICANE EPSILON. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THIS
TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IS MOVING
ACROSS MOROCCO...MAURITANIA...AND ALGERIA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N46W TO 27N64W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ANOTHER RIDGE RUNS FROM 31N16W TO 22N29W.

$$
MT

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