[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 042031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

EPSILON HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND. THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN IN STEADY
STATE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHLY BASED ON THE
STRUCTURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RING. THE BEST WIND ESTIMATE IS 70
KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON NO LONGER WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST PASSED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THERE
WAS NO APPARENT INTERACTION. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS IT MAKES
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAST RUN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE
EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. BY THEN...THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MUCH LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW SYSTEMS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE
EAST PACIFIC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 34.3N  38.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 34.4N  36.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  34.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  33.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  34.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW


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