[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

EPSILON IS A HURRICANE AGAIN AT 04/1500 UTC... NEAR 34.3N 39.2W
OR ABOUT 725 MILES WSW OF THE AZORES.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING E 10 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB.  PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  DESPITE SSTS BETWEEN 70-72F... EPSILON
HAS AGAIN STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.  CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED IN THE EYEWALL WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE PERSISTING...
THOUGH RECENTLY THE CONVECTION ON THE E SIDE HAS BECOME WEAKER.
EPSILON IS WEDGED BETWEEN A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E AND
AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W...HELPING TO KEEP IT FROM TURNING
EXTRATROPICAL.  OF NOTE IS THAT IT NOW TIED FOR THE 2ND
STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN DECEMBER WITH NICOLE OF
1998.  #2 OF 1925 IS THE LEADER WITH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT.  IF
EPSILON SURVIVES INTO TOMORROW AS A HURRICANE IT COULD BE THE
LONGEST-LASTING HURRICANE IN DECEMBER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N13W 4N23W 5N37W 4N46W 5N53W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 29W-36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-28W.  CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NEAR 5N15W AND 5N49.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WESTERN PART OF A SURFACE HIGH...1024 MB JUST SW OF
BERMUDA... RIDGES WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO S TEXAS.
RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 10-20 KT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER HONDURAS IS PRODUCING
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE E GULF.
A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSES NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS WITH WINDS UP TO 100 KT. THE JET IS ENHANCING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO THE NW GULF LATE TODAY AND
SHOULD BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHERN USA.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW
THE COLD FRONT... UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF.  AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY... MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO S FLORIDA FROM WED ONWARD AS UPPER WINDS
PARALLEL THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT BLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF BARBADOS
BETWEEN 59W-63W IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO NE VENEZUELA.  BEST
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  SIGNIFICANT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA...LIKEWISE INTO E
HONDURAS.  OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA. MID/UPPER TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHILE
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINLY N OF 15N. EXPECT CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR 32N69W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N50W TO 27N60W DISSIPATING TO 25N65W WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES.  JUST A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS ARE FOUND BETWEEN
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND 30W IN A WIDE EXPANSE OF THE
CENTRAL...THAT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR COVERS THE REGION N OF
18 BETWEEN 30W-60W.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W
AND IN THE E ATLC FROM 31N30W TO 21N35W... PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 22W-30W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE ITCZ AIDING TSTMS ESPECIALLY NEAR 6.5N34W WHERE A
WEAK BROAD LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CAN BEEN SEEN.  PRESSURES REMAIN
LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN MOST OF THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
WEAKER TRADES THAN NORMAL.

$$
BLAKE

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