[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1008 MB TROPICAL ATLC SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
13N38W MOVING WNW 10 KT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...BUT REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOSTLY NE OF THE LOW FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1012 MB LOW...FORMERLY T.D. THIRTEEN...IS LOCATED SE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 28N53W MOVING N 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

WEAK CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE N COAST
FROM 72W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N24W 13N36W THEN ALONG 12N40W
7N34W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150/200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
20W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
FUNNELED ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
HIGH THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED NE EXTENDING TO THE E OF KATRINA'S
PATH SW OVER TEXAS AND NW MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE TEXAS
COAST VERY DRY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W
ATLC IS KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THUS...ONLY REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE ALL BUT DIED OUT.
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...STRONG S
SURFACE WINDS AND E UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
DIFFLUENCE FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS
PRODUCED NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA INTO S MEXICO
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
COAST BETWEEN 91W-95W. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER LAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN UPPER FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA E ALONG 15N74W THEN NE TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA SPREADS ACROSS THE W
ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 78W-83W INCLUDING W JAMAICA...S
CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER HAITI AND THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA E
OF 70W. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TO
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE SURFACE
WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NW OF THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN BY WEEKS END.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A NE/SW
RIDGE AXIS...FUNNELING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
KATRINA ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW TO THE E...S OF BERMUDA...IS CENTERED NEAR
27N65W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO HISPANIOLA AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
ATLC FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 64W-72W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1015
MB HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N56W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SW TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND NE TO BEYOND
32N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE NEAR
30N53W AND IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-34N BETWEEN 47W-53W. THE 1012 MB LOW
IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW.
WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
56W-60W. SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR IS TO THE E OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WITHIN 150-250 NM OF LINE FROM 27N40W-18N46W TO
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. THIS IS KEEPING THE W TROPICAL
ATLC CLEAR AND DRY. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SECOND BROAD
UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N26W WITH
FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 42W. THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES IS ON THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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