[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 051440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER HARVEY AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE CENTER IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE
CYCLONE STILL HAS A VERY TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AS
INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND HIGH
RESOLUTION QUICKSCAT. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS INDICATED.

AS ANTICIPATED...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING AND HARVEY IS
MEANDERING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  WITH A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPING
TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES
THE WESTERLY FLOW BY 48 HOURS OR SO. HARVEY SHOULD THEN INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 32.4N  58.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 32.9N  57.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  56.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 35.5N  56.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 37.0N  54.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 45.5N  39.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z 50.0N  30.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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