[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 27 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N12W 3N27W 2N50W.   ISOLATED MODERATE S OF
30N BETWEEN 30W-35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 25W-30W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N
BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP EASTERN UNITED STATES UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THRU THE REGION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF YUCATAN
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N97W.  THE FRONT HAS LIMITED
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE GULF BEING ON THE SUBSIDENCE-LADEN
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDINESS IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE
GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE W GULF IN ADDITION TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS W OF
94W.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY
SAT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF N OF 27N.  FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT SYSTEM AND AT THIS POINT SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF
MOVING ALL THE WAY THRU FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THICK SMOKE/HAZE IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES W OF 83W
N OF NICARAGUA LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 MILES THROUGHOUT THE
AREA.  BROAD 1008 MB LOW LIES OVER N GUATEMALA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THRU THE GULF OF HONDURAS.   OTHERWISE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS DIURNAL TSTMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
WITH GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT RATHER THAN UPPER RIDGING.  UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN S AMERICA NEAR S VENEZUELA RIDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE.  CONTINUED GREATER-THAN-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE N CARIBBEAN TOMORROW SPREADING INTO PUERTO RICO
BY FRI AND THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT.  TYPICAL ELY
TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION BETWEEN 14N-17N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 80W SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N
OF 27N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 70W.  OTHERWISE THE PATTERN
LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 60W AND IN
THE E ATLC FROM MADEIRA ISLAND TO 24N34W.  A SURFACE TROF IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N36W TO 22N50W DIVIDES THE RIDGES WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS WITH A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THE TROUGH NEAR 31N41W TO 27N49W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC SAVE
A SMALL PORTION W OF 70W.  OTHERWISE A DEEP MID/UPPER TROF RUNS
FROM 32N30W TO 8N52W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N W OF 35W.
RIDGING IS EXPANDING IN THE E ATLC WITH ONE HIGH CENTER NEAR
4N18W RIDGING NORTHWARD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTWARD TO
4N40W.  A BIT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS.   DIMINISHED ELY TRADES ARE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W WITH TWO WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS
PRESENT.. ONE AROUND 45W AND ANOTHER NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS... ENHANCING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

$$
BLAKE

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