[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 27 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 3N50W 3N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2S TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 24W
AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE JUST OFF THE MEXICO
COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF. THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH COVERS THE
GULF WATERS NORTH OF 27N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ALSO NORTH OF 27N FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE GULF WATERS TO
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN A LINE...TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...NOW SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE COLDER AND THE PRECIPITATION WAS
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER 5 HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WEST OF 32N65W 26N70W 22N77W IN THE ATLANTIC...AND
SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 24N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SMOKE HAS SHOWN UP IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS TO
BELIZE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W.
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EAST OF 73W...BECOMING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 26N69W...TOWARD CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 19N81W
JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. A BROAD 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 17N89.5W IN NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...IN FRONT OF A
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. PART OF THE ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY-TO-GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE IN MOST SECTIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 32N65W 26N70W
22N77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W...LEADING INTO AN EASTERN-TO-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BIG PART OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 9N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 65W IS COVERED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. THE EASTERN-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 38N43W ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN 1002 MB
GALE CENTER NEAR 39N47W AT THE SURFACE...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GALE CENTER THROUGH 34N40W TO
30N44W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN OLD SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALONG 31N37W 29N40W 22N50W 18N56W. THIS
TROUGH WAS MARKED BY A THIN LINE OF LOW CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY.

$$
MT


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