[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 25 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 1N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 10W-12W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 14W-19W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 18W-22W...FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
25W-27W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC A 1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
ALABAMA NEAR 28N87W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND
THE CENTER.  RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  AN EMBEDDED
PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 94W-97W.  SIMILAR ONSHORE FLOW IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 18N-25N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING OVER N FLORIDA WHICH
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE.  THE TEMPERATURE AT TALLAHASSEE HAS
ALREADY DROPPED TO 37F.  THE LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY
BANKED UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT GOES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND DISSIPATES AS IT
CONTINUES TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 22N77W 19N82W.  A
BROKEN BAND OF CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-66W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE W SIDE OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SW.  MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING FROM VENEZUELA
TO THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT
OVER CUBA TO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS OVER CUBA.  ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EWD ACROSS
THE W ATLC FROM 32N67W SW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA.   BEHIND THE FRONT...BRISK NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ADVECTING
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.  A 1007 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N52W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W.  A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
34N31W DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND
W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  SHARP RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 10N55W TO BEYOND 32N45W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W.  OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXISTS OVER MOST
OF THE ITCZ.

$$
FORMOSA






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