[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 25 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 4N30W 1N40W 3N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 2W-6W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A 1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 28N89W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING
AROUND THE CENTER.  RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  SIMILAR ONSHORE
FLOW IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 18N-25N.  AN EMBEDDED
PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
96W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXCEPT FOR NE CORNER AND N FLORIDA WHERE THE BASE OF A
TROUGH REMAINS.  AN AREA OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF MOVING E.  EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
MORNING OVER N FLORIDA WHICH REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE.  ALSO
EXPECT SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SAME AREA FROM THE NW.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY BANKED UP AGAINST THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD START TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT GOES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND DISSIPATES AS IT
CONTINUES TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N78W 20N84W
20N89W.  A BROKEN BAND OF CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-66W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE W SIDE OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SW...AND ADVECTING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM VENEZUELA
TO THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT
OVER CUBA TO DELINEATE A FAIRLY STRONG AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CUBA.  ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EWD ACROSS
THE W ATLC FROM 32N68W SW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA.   BEHIND THE FRONT...BRISK NW WINDS TO 20 KT IS ADVECTING
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.  A 1008 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W.  A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
35N33W DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND
W ATLANTIC W OF 60W...SHARP RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
A ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N55W TO BEYOND 32N45W...AND TROUGH OVER THE
E ATLANTIC.  OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...CONVECTION EXISTS OVER
MOST OF THE ITCZ AND IS MOST INTENSE BETWEEN 15W-20W.

$$
FORMOSA





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