[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241807 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 24 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N30W 1N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-12W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-18W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 28W-32W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 35W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 23N80W 20N90W 20N97W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS TO 22N99W 26N100W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE FROM THE COASTLINE TO THE FOOTHILLS.  NORTHERLY WIND NOW
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF TO INCLUDE S OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.  BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE E GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-90W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W
OF 85W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
COVERS THE AREA W OF 90W.  A TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE
EXTREME E GULF E OF 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.
EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24
HOURS WITH SW-W RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.  A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE INLAND OVER W TEXAS APPROACHING THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE.  A
REMNANT TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N63W TO
14N65W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH
DRIFTING E.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W WITH 70-90 KT FLOW FROM THE SW.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO E CUBA TO W OF
JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER N VENEZUELA...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 23N80W.  BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT.  A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  FURTHER EAST...A BAROCLINIC LEAF
EXTENDS FROM THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BEYOND 32N54W PRODUCING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.  A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N30W DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-85W.  A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF
THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 10N52W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-80W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 8N AND E OF 30W.  EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net