[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241008 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 24 APR 2005

AMENDED TO INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...1S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND 14W...FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 26W AND
39W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROUGH GOES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N125W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE ALONG 99W IN INTERIOR MEXICO.
THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH
REACHES 32N78W 28N78W...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO CUBA
ALONG 80W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH 32N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W...TO 23N90W...
23N98W AT THE MEXICO COAST...FINALLY 25N101W IN MEXICO. MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N73W 28N76W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE WITHIN 20 TO
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N87W 24N82W 26N80W. COLD AIR STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 26N82W 24N90W 24N94W...MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT TROUGH...LEFT OVER FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR
AT LEAST ONE WEEK...RUNS FROM 20N68W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING OFF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE REST OF THE AREA...EAST
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH 32N78W
28N78W...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N74W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W...TO 23N90W...23N98W AT THE MEXICO
COAST...FINALLY 25N101W IN MEXICO. MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N73W 28N76W.
A REMNANT TROUGH...LEFT OVER FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT
LEAST ONE WEEK...RUNS FROM 33N50W TO 32N60W TO 30N64W 27N65W
20N68W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 32N66W TO 23N67W TO 16N75W IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS THE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BRING MUCH WET WEATHER...POSSIBLE
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO PARTS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THIS
WEEKEND. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THIS
SYSTEM. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF
THIS TROUGH. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 66W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 35W AND 67W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF
22N FROM 35W TO THE AFRICA COAST ALONG 10W AND BEYOND. THE
TROUGH WITH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS THROUGH 31N15W TO 22N23W TO
7N35W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
MT


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