[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 15 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N30W 2N50W. LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 5W-11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 25W-27W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
MOVING SW FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.   IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A NARROW RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W
WITH AXIS ALONG 95W.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA. A
LARGER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLANTIC... FLORIDA...AND THE E GULF
N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-90W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE E GULF.  EXPECT STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS ALONG
21N75W 15N83W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE 180 NM BEHIND
THE FRONT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT HONDURAS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS TYPICAL TRADES THAT ARE CURVING
SW TOWARDS COSTA RICA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF LAKE MARACAIBO FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 71W-73W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE W ATLANTIC...
STORM LOW IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N73W DRIFTING E.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 23N80W.  COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO E CUBA ALONG 30N64W 25N67W
20N77W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-32N
BETWEEN 63W-69W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... TROUGH COVERS THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-90W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E
AND BE FROM 30N60W TO HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS.

THE CENTRAL AND W ATLANTIC...
STRONG 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 38N31W DOMINATES THE AREA.  SURFACE
RIDGING IS N OF 10N AND E OF 60W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N55W.  A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N38W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF 47W.  IN THE TROPICS...
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES S OF 10N SUPPRESSING ITCZ RELATED
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY W OF 30W WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
THE HIGHEST.

$$
FORMOSA


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