[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 15 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W 3N37W 1N50W. LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND N OF 2N E OF
8W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W TO 16W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 22W TO 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 46W
TO 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 96W WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS IS HELPING
TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE NE TO E WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES IS HELPING TO ENERGIZE A COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING STORM CENTER N OF OUR
WATERS...AND DEVELOPING GALE IN OUR WATERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
33N73W AND FORECAST TO DRIFT A BIT SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LIES WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER WITH
BOUNDARY ALONG 31N66W 24N70W 21N77W BECOMING STATIONARY FURTHER
SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 30N65W
24N68W WITH PORTION OF CONVECTION S OF 27N MOVING RAPIDLY ENE IN
60-90 KT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW TO WSW WINDS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N73W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N79W. THIS FEATURE...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH A SHARP SHIFT
IN WINDS IS FOUND ALONG THIS TROUGH BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE.

N/NE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE REGION. THIS SURFACE FLOW WILL
TURN MORE EASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
EASTERN SEABOARD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TOUCHES THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE ASSOCIATED W ATLC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES EASTERN
CUBA TO NEAR 16N86W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONGEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN FRONT IS CONFINED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE...S OF 17N IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...A RIDGE NOSES ITS WAY N
ALONG 60W ACROSS THE ISLANDS. S TO SW WINDS ALOFT ON THE ORDER
OF 40 TO 60 KT AT 400 TO 200 MB CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM E PACIFIC ITCZ AND ISTHMUS OF PANAMA CONVECTION NE
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS MOISTURE APPEARS AS MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS E OF LINE 18N70W
12N84W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC...
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD...STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM PARENT 1033 MB
HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N31W...N OF THE AREA TO NEAR 21N65W N OF
PUERTO RICO. UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SUB-BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH WITH A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 24N36W. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE S...WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N51W TOP BEYOND 17N19W...AND IS HELPING TO
KEEP ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION FURTHER S...PARTICULARLY E OF 30W
WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS QUITE LOW.

$$
HOLWEG

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