[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 14 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 3N40W 2N50W. A LARGE
AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 7W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN
45W-49W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 18W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF
85W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER BUILDING THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRES S OF 21N.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND E OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LINKED TO A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SC AND BROAD
TROUGHING REACHING DOWN TO S FLORIDA.  MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS SRN GA/AL/MS/ THE FL PANHANDLE/ AND THE NE GULF
WATERS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK 1009 MB SFC LOW JUST E OF COCOA
BEACH FL EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF
WATERS BUT IS MERELY PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT AND PATCHY CUMULUS
CLOUDS.  EXPECT NE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OVER THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SLID INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 20N84W
15N88W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 86W-89W.  FURTHER
SOUTH... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 68W-75W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO THE NICARAGUA COAST...AND THIS
IS SPREADING A DEEPER DRY AIR MASS OVER THE W PART OF THE AREA.
THE SOUTH AMERICAN UPPER HIGH HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED
ALTHOUGH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS STILL EVIDENT CIRCULATING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND
BE FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 30N69W
24N74W 22N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 240 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 26N.   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 60W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS SPREADING OVER THE W ATLANTIC
WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  AN INDUCED RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 21N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 30W-45W.
EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N64W TO W
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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