[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 14 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N1W 6.5N10W 3N23W 4N37W 1N53W. A
LARGE COMPLEX OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
AFRICA DURING THE DAY AND IS ROLLING OFF THE COAST FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 4W-13W...AFFECTING THE COUNTRIES OF THE IVORY
COAST...LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND SE GUINEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-23W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE UP TO 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-51W APPROACHING
THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SLOWLY DOWN THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRES AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
SLIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND E OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
LINKED TO A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SC AND
BROAD TROUGHING REACHING DOWN TO S FLORIDA...WITH W/NW WINDS
FLOWING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE W/CNTRL GULF AREA. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA YESTERDAY PUSHED SE OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT BUT A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS UP TO 140 NM NW OF
THE BOUNDARY IS HANGING AROUND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CUT-OFF LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SRN
GA/AL/MS WHICH WILL SOON CROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW JUST NW OF TAMPA FL
IS PROPELLING A TROF ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS BUT IS MERELY
PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT AND PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THRU NEXT TUE AS HIGH PRES MEANDERS
AROUND THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

CARIBBEAN...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID INTO THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
CUBA TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH THEN ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND
CNTRL GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN POPPING
PRIMARILY OVER WATER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM OF THE FRONT TO THE SE
GULF WATERS. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF HAS OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST...AND THIS
IS SPREADING A DEEPER DRY AIR MASS OVER THE W PART OF THE AREA.
THE SOUTH AMERICAN UPPER HIGH HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED
ALTHOUGH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS STILL EVIDENT CIRCULATING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
HISPANIOLA SAT/SUN.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED TROF IS SPREADING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS AS THE
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EWD ALONG 32N69W
ACROSS THE CNTRL BAHAMAS TO 22N80W OVER CNTRL CUBA. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UP TO 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND BEING NEAR
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET NEAR FLORIDA. A
POST-FRONTAL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N73W SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL FL WITH NEW
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING N OF 29N BETWEEN
77W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG
HIGH PRES WITH THE MAIN RIDGE ALONG 32N41W TO 18N64W NEAR THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY ELEVATED
TROF SYSTEMS...WITH ONE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 21N41W AND A
SECOND TROF FALLING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TOWARDS THE MOROCCAN
COAST. THIS SECOND TROF IS SUPPORTING THE DEEPENING OF A 1006 MB
LOW ALONG THE MOROCCO/MAURITANIA BORDER NEAR 28N9W WITH A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 20N14W ALLOWING COOLER
MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO S OF 16N EXTENDING TO
THE EQUATOR ALTHOUGH ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE WHERE THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

$$
BERG


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