[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT MON 04 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N30W 3N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 10W-20W...AND BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W.
RETURN FLOW FROM THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE-S WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W-96W.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW IS NOTED WITH VELOCITIES OF 70-100 KT.  A BAND OF SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN S TEXAS AND N
FLORIDA WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 26N97W 29N81W.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS IN 24
HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF
FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE SE-S LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK TRADEWINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W.  A COLD FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA PRODUCING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 7N60W 10N84W.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRIMARILY N OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH 50-70 KT SW-W FLOW.  A BAND OF MOISTURE IS S OF 13N.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF 13N.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA TO MOVE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
DISSIPATE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD EXPERIENCE
SIMILAR WEATHER AS TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W.  A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 32N55W 25N60W 21N70W 20N74W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT.  A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 27N51W.  A 1004
MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
WELL E OF THE LOW ALONG 32N26W 27N27W 20N32W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 80W-50W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N32W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO 10N40W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
9N15W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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